VIP PICKS (CFB – GAME OF THE WEEK)
(112) California +17
(112) California ML +590
We went against Wazzu last week and regretted our decision, however, we have no problem going against them again tonight and with good reason! Wazzu off B2B wins against 2 of the 3 League’s top teams and now on the road against a Cal team seeking revenge for last year’s blowout loss–a perfect letdown spot. Also, this line makes absolutely NO SENSE! 3 weeks ago a lessor ranked USC came to Cal as a 16 point fave with Cal seeking revenge for a 20 point previous season loss and now a TOP 10 RANKED Wazzu comes in as ONLY a 13.5 point fave at the open after clobbering Cal by 5 TDs last year–NO WAY–not buying it! This line should’ve been 20+ at the open! But we can thank “Joe Public” for betting this up to its current level giving us maximum value especially on the moneyline. Be WARNED friends–we might be the ONLY ONES on Cal tonight but we never like being with the herd anyway! Guys,Wazzu IS NOT a legitimate Top 10 team. They are all smoke and mirrors and people are buying into them after their wins over USC and Oregon but WE ARE NOT! Awesome trend backing certain home dogs seeking revenge for a previous season blowout loss, if they gave up 50 or more points. Another awesome trend backing certain home dogs seeking revenge for a previous season blowout loss if they accumulated 500 or more yards in offense. Another awesome trend going against certain conference road faves off a conference road win, if they converted less than 30% of their 3rd downs.
VIP PICK (CFB)
(110) Syracuse +24
(110) Syracuse ML +1150
Who can forget the Orange’s 54-0 embarrassing loss to these Tigers last season? Certainly not the coaches, players or their fans! This team had this one circled the minute the schedule was released. The Orange have one of the nation’s top offenses and a defense that is much improved. With the Clemson QB nursing an ankle injury we expect the Tigers gameplan to be more conservative with a bigger focus on staying healthy and getting out of Central New York with a win instead of running up a scoreboard for no reason. Friday the 13th seems like the perfect time for a major shocker and the Orange can create quite a scare of they play mistake-free ball for 4 quarters. Awesome trend backing certain home dogs seeking revenge for a previous season blowout loss, if they gave up 50 or more points. Another awesome trend backing certain home dogs seeking revenge for a previous season shutout loss, a blowout loss.
(451) Kansas City +9 (NFL GAME OF THE WEEK)
(459) Kansas City ML +375
The Pats are the defending Super Bowl Champions and we can thank the League and their shadow owners for the manufactured comeback, a scene right out of Hollywood–the biggest fix in history–YES it was fixed so get over it but it took members of this secret shadow organization to make it happen, primarily the Falcons offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, who left for San Francisco after the game. The Pats still have Brady and Belichick, 2 of the best of all-time but they lost Edelman to preseason injury and that was not what they needed, especially after the huge loss in talent in the offseason which included Leveon Bell, Martellus Bennett, LeGerrett Blount and Jaime Collins. Of course, there is highly touted WR Brandin Cooks to pick up the slack for Edelman but this kid has yet to play an NFL game or catch a game pass from Brady–this is not good! Meanwhile, the Chiefs return almost all starters from last season’s 12-5 team. They are now one of the most veteran teams in the league. They have a great coach, smart QB, great ground game, a big tight end, good pass rushers and a great secondary–all things you must have if you want to beat the Patriots! You may, or may not, recall the Chiefs met the Pats in the playoffs 2 seasons ago and had them on the ropes until a fumble at mid-field cost them the game down the stretch. Many of those players are still on this team and they, along with Coach Reid, are seeking redemption for that loss. Additionally, it was also Reid’s Eagles team that lost to the Pats in the Super Bowl a few years earlier. So we have a revenge-minded Chiefs team being led by a coach seeking double revenge himself and with an entire offseason to prepare! The public loves backing the Super Bowl champ on opening night and they love backing the Patriots every week just as much–BUT NOT ME–NOT TONIGHT! Look for Coach Reid to have his troops ready and let’s back them with confidence knowing we have an awesome trend backing certain week 1 revenge-minded teams. Coach Reid is one of the best in the business when playing the role of the dog, going 12-3 as a dog of 8 points or more. We also have another great trend going against certain week 1 Super Bowl faves off a come-from-behind SB win.
(206) Alabama -7 (GAME OF THE MONTH)
Bama lost the National Championship to Clemson in a thriller, a game we called. If you recall Bama had the game well under control, up 10 heading into the 4th quarter and with the #1 ranked defense behind them the game almost seemed out of reach for the Tigers but then we watched Saban’s top ranked unit give up 3 TDs including the game winner on the game’s final play! Saban and his gang sat and watched in disbelief and it has not sat well with them since. The team was extremely motivated in the offseason and are looking to redeem themselves for that meltdown and what better way to get it than against another ACC opponent who everyone claims is better than last year’s Clemson team. But herein lies the problem for FSU and their backers! Their offensive line last year was horrible and we didn’t see anything of significance happen in the offseason to think it’s going to get much better and this spells trouble when you are facing one of the nation’s top defensive lines, a unit that is known to dominate the trenches and wreak havoc on QBs. Offensively, the Tide’s O-line is, again, the best in the business. They are a freight train coming at you at full speed. And although FSU’s defensive front is very good they just don’t have the depth to match Bama down the stretch! And when the game is on the line we all know FSU is known for their bonehead mistakes at all the wrong times while Bama one of the best coached and most disciplined teams in history! Let’s take Bama knowing we have several trends in our favor but specifically one backing certain week 1 faves seeking revenge for a bowl game loss if they lead after the 3rd quarter. We another awesome trend backing certain week 1 teams, good defensive teams, seeking revenge for a bowl loss if they were outgained by 100 or more yards.
(152) Colorado -3 (GAME OF THE WEEK)
Boston College might be the first public bloodbath of the season but Colorado State is right behind them with Joe Public and every so-called expert pounding them–BUT NOT US! The general consensus is Colorado State is much better than last year while Colorado is worse. However, even after the Rams blew out Oregon State last week oddsmakers still opened them up as 8.5 point dogs and the public ate them up driving the line to it’s current level. THANK YOU VERY MUCH! People fail to recognize the Buffaloes are still stacked with big play makers on offense and can keep up with any offensive production by the Rams. Defensively, the Buffaloes only return 3 starters but they have the talent to fill any holes as a result. The Rams did everything right last week to win their first game in their new stadium, a very emotional win. Their win was lead by a near perfect performance by senior QB Stevens who finished with a 158.86 passer rating. And now the Rams head on the road following that emotional win, off a big time performance by their QB and on a short week and, even worse, against their in-state rival–I DON’T THINK SO! Awesome trend going against certain road dogs, 6 or less days rest, off a home blowout win if they scored 50 or more points.
(150) Northern Illinois +4
Boston College might be the first public bloodbath of 2017! Everywhere you turn Joe Public and the so-called experts pounding them—NOT US! Many people are expecting B.C. to have a breakout year and are pointing to their success down the stretch last season closing out with 3 straight wins. However, people are failing to recognize the Eagles were outgained in 2 of those games and outgained in almost every game last year, pointing to serious inefficiencies on offense and we saw nothing in the offseason to indicate this will change. Meanwhile, NIU finished last season at 5-7, the first time they failed to post a winning mark or go bowling since 2008. However, their lack of success had nothing to due with talent but rather injuries, something that has been the thorn for them over the past 2 seasons. The Huskies are entering the season healthy and with their fair share of experience, especially on defense where they have an all-conference caliber secondary! A talented secondary with the best kicker on the field always gives you a chance especially if the game plays close like we expect. Awesome trend going against certain non-divsional road faves at this price if home conference game on deck, the classic “look ahead” spot.
VIP PICKS (NFL)
(128) Denver -2.5 (PRESEASON GAME OF THE YEAR)
After beating the Falcons during dress rehearsal last week Arizona will be happy to shurt down here and protect their roster form unnecessary injuries. Meanwhile, the Broncos are also sure to protect their key players but there are many roster spots on the depth chart still up for grabs. Coach Joseph has been very candid and very vocal about this. The Broncos already have a major depth advantage over the Cards and now with a roster of backups fighting for their football lives this is all the motivation we need to make this our Preseason Game of the Year. We have an awesome trend going against certain road dogs off a SU win as a road dog and another awesome trend backing certain home faves off a home fave win.
(115) NY Giants +3
(115) NY Giants ML +125
The Pats have some specific goals they are looking to accomplish in this preseason finale but none of them include winning the game. Their primary goal involves getting RB Gillislee into game shape after his layoff and the secondary goal is to give 3rd string QB Brissett an opportunity to manage as much of the game as possible. Both of these goals play right into the strength of the Giants defensive scheme and that’s juts part of the great news for us. The other great news is the Giants still have a QB battle going on for the 3rd string job and this will keep the play calling on moving the ball and giving each QB their opportunity to get in the endzone. We have an awesome trend going against certain home faves off a road win if they were outgained by their opponent.
VIP PICKS (CFB)
(134) Indiana +21
Indiana has the talent to hang with the Bucks but it will take a mistake-free game to keep this close. Offensively the Hoosier have an extremely talented QB who should benefit from the play calling of new coordinator, Mike DeBord, who was brought in from Tennessee, a program he lifted to one of the top units in the nation. Debord and his offense can make this game a scary one for the Bucks who, undoubtedly, are one of the most talented groups in the nation BUT they have a ton of inexperience in their secondary and the Hoosiers have enough talent to expose them. Defensively, the Hoosiers return many starters including a much improved secondary. Despite losing last year the Hoosiers held a more talented Bucks team in-check. Enter more experience, a major upgrade in coaching, home field and combine this with a few big stops and a few big plays and they could start the season off with a SHOCKER!
(200) Oklahoma State -17
Rarely will you ever see us lay this many points but tonight it’s warranted. We all remember what happened in the Cowboys’ home opener last season! A crazy ending that resulted in a controversial loss. With that game still fresh in the minds of players, coaches and fans that won’t happen again! With Tulsa ranking near the bottom of the nation’s list for returning talent it is unreasonable to think they go into Big 12 land and pull the upset and given the huge disparity in talent on both sides of the ball it’s just as unreasonable to think they can even cover the number. Awesome trend backing certain week 1non-conference home faves with a non-conference game on deck if facing opponent who has a home non-conference game on deck.
(135) Buffalo +24
Minnesota with a new head coach, new QB and a ton of huge holes to fill, especially on defense where they are starting basically from scratch. It’s hard to imagine this team will have any real chemistry at this point to cover such a huge number, especially against an opponent who knows Coach Fleck too well from his days at Western Michigan. Make no mistake about it Buffalo is outclassed at almost every position, however, it is the 6’7″, 235LB QB that keeps me interested. This kid is a beast! He’s strong, can run and is a major threat with his arm against this inexperienced Gopher secondary! Even if the Gophers are able to pull away late the back door will be wide open and my money says the Bulls close it! A rare and unique trend going against certain week 1 teams with a new coach and new QB if facing a former team or former conference opponent seeking previous season revenge.
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