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J.R. Stevens

Winning Sports Plays Advisor

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WHY DO YOU PLAY MOSTLY UNDERDOGS?

It is no secret that I am one of the most successful underdog players in the industry. But this is not by accident! It has to do with…

It is no secret that I am one of the most successful underdog players in the industry. But this is not by accident! It has to do with my education and training. I spent almost 20 years as a Wall Street portfolio manager, specializing in risk management. I had a real knack for finding the inefficiencies in the market that allowed my clients to make the biggest returns in stock investing with the least amount of risk. In other words, find those stocks at the lows just before they explode! Handicapping is very similar to stock investing. Vegas oddsmakers establish lines based on certain criteria but even they make mistakes! And for me it’s about finding the mistakes and capitalizing on them! Often times the mistakes are with the dogs because there’s a certain psychology that already exists with favorites — it’s the “there’s a reason why they are the favorite, it’s because they are the better team” that has most of the public betting faves most of the time! This is also one of the biggest reasons why most people lose big over time! Vegas knows this, I know this! And Vegas factors human psychology into their lines as well, and often times when they expect the dog will cover or win outright they will set lines at levels they know the general betting public will “bite” on the fave! We call these “soft” lines or “traps”. A big part of my job is to help people avoid these situations! So, YES, I’m a huge underdog player BUT I will not hesitate to pound a favorite when the opportunity exists! And I always tell my clients that when I issue a fave as a top pick you better pay attention!

J.R. Stevens
Award Winning Handicapper

© Copyright 2019 Winning Sports Plays, All Rights Reserved.
Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is in violation of all copyright laws.

WHY MOST SPORTS BETTORS LOSE $$$

Did you know? It is estimated that 95% of all sports bettors LOSE MONEY–and A LOT OF IT…

Unrealistic Expectations

Everyone bets every game expecting to win but to actually win every game is unrealistic! If you are going to be a sports bettor you must understand and ACCEPT that winning streaks will happen and losing streaks will happen—NOBODY is the exception to the rule–not even Pros! Bottom line, learn to take the bad with the good! Part of setting expectations also has to do with wins and losses! STOP thinking you are going to win 80%, 70% or even 60% of your bets–this is FOOLISH and you won’t do it! Instead work from the “bottom up”. This means KNOW what the BREAK-EVEN point is and start there! And I will help you–the break even point for most sports is typically 52.38% and NOT 50%–this is because of the VIG–VIG is the difference between what you risk versus what you win and is typically 10% (Baseball is the exception to the rule). Also, know and understand that for every 1% you finish above the break-even point results in BIG profits—assuming you follow good money management practices, which I will cover next! The bottom line, contrary to belief you DO NOT need to win 60 or 70% of the time to win big!

Poor Money Management

Money management is the reason why the vast majority of bettors lose! Without it you WILL LOSE–it’s a 100% certainty! Again, you are NOT the exception to the rule—NOBODY is! And the real key to being successful is being able to survive a losing streak, which is inevitable, and something most bettors can’t do! Instead, most get caught trying to “chase” their losses with bigger bets which is also a recipe for disaster! Establish a total amount you can afford to lose, and be honest with yourself–$100, $500, $1,000–whatever the amount is becomes your “bankroll”. Once your bankroll is set you then need to establish a “bet” amount. Your bet amount should NEVER exceed 5% of your total bankroll for any play! This means that your max bet amount for each play is $50 if your total bankroll is $1,000. This is the most important discipline you MUST adhere to if you want any chance at being successful! And I don’t care how confident you are with a play–NEVER exceed 5% of your total bankroll! As your bankroll increases so will your bet amount but, again, maintaining 5% of the total amount as your max bet! For example if your $1,000 bankroll grows to $1,500 your bet amount increases to $75 from $50. If you establish realistic bankroll and maintain the bet amount discipline sports betting can be fun, stress-free and ultimately profitable!

Human Emotions and Ego

There are two reasons people lack discipline–emotions and ego–and both are an inescapable aspect of human existence! When we lose or feel rejected the anterior insula and the anterior cingulate cortex part of the brain gets activated. When this happens emotional reactions are triggered that cause us to torment ourselves for our choices and decisions leading us to dwell on what went wrong. These emotions feed the ego and is ultimately what drives people to want to get rid of that pain the quickest way possible! In sports betting this means trying to replace the negative emotions of a loss with positive emotions of a win! And unfortunately it is this desire that causes us to break all disciplines and even begin chasing! The human brain is powerful, the human ego is evil—the ego will KILL YOU! You MUST learn to control your emotions in order to maintain discipline! There are several methods to doing this. But first we must understand the mind stores a lifetime of conditioned beliefs and expectations through which it filters all perceptions. When you feel the negative emotions from a loss or “bad beat” don’t connect to the emotion personally by thinking “I’m angry”, “I’m mad” or “I’m stressed” but instead detach and let go by looking at all emotions as just energy, or electricity, that flows through you but is NOT you! Also, take responsibility for your reactions to your emotions! If you find yourself always reacting a certain way to an emotion then ask yourself what you need to do to change that conditioned response. In other words, re-condition yourself to react differently, in a more positive way! If you want to win money at sports betting then you MUST learn to control your emotions–period!

How Do You Know if You are Betting More Than You Can Afford?

Let me answer this questions with a few questions of my own!

Are you adding money frequently to your account? Are you chasing losses with bigger bets? Are you living and dying with each play? Do you get angry when you lose? Do you feel stressed when you watch a game you bet on? Are you losing sleep? Are you worrying about how your going to pay them man? Do you lie to your spouse about sports betting?

If you answered ‘YES” to any of these questions then you ARE betting too much and not practicing good money management!

My only goal is to help you win but to win you must set realistic expectations, only bet what you can afford to lose, stay disciplined and control your emotions. If you do all of these things then sports betting will be fun, stress-free and PROFITABLE!

J.R. Stevens
Award Winning Handicapper

© Copyright 2019 Winning Sports Plays, All Rights Reserved.
Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is in violation of all copyright laws.

SO YOU THINK YOU CAN HANDICAP?

Everyone wants to be a sports handicapper but the truth is few actually have what it takes to be a successful one…

Everyone wants to be a sports handicapper but the truth is few actually have what it takes to be a successful one. And since the release of that movie “Two for the Money” there has been an explosion of so-called handicappers popping up everywhere. I suspect it’s the intrigue around the lifestyle of a handicapper they depict in that movie—unfortunately what they portrayed was written for Hollywood and is not the reality!

I don’t expect the average sports bettor to really know what goes into being a professional handicapper and I don’t expect everyone that visits my website or uses my service to have a full knowledge of how everything works. Every day I am bombarded with e-mails from people asking all kinds of questions about what we do and how we do it. So what I’ve done here is taken the top 5 questions I get most and tried to answer them as simply as I can to make things easier for you. After all, that’s what my job is—-to make things easier for you!

Why should I use a professional handicapper instead of doing it myself?

This is by far the question I get asked the most by people who are thinking about using my service—-and the answer is simple—- because we are professionals. Sports betting should be approached as an investment. If you were going to invest your money in the stock market would you try to go at it yourself or would you employ a broker that has experience, connections, a track record of success, and an in-depth knowledge of the industry?

Sports handicapping is what I do—it’s a full-time job! While you are spending time at your job, with your family, or doing what ever it is that you need to do, I am working hard doing research and looking for the next great opportunity. I’m talking to my networks, crunching numbers, watching line movements, and looking for those trends the public doesn’t know about. Bottom line, I do it so that you don’t have to! You get to sit back and enjoy the fruits of my labor!

I’m sure you are an avid sports fan and this is why you bet on sports. A lot of our clients are and do. But beyond just knowing sports I also understand all the technical aspects of sports handicapping and sports betting. I know what key numbers are and what they mean. I know what certain line movements mean. I have access to betting trends and systems the general public doesn’t know about. I have access to information through my networks that most people can never get. And the bottom line is I know how to win, and win consistently.

Again, this is my full-time job and a job I take seriously! Would you attempt to defend yourself in the court of law? Would you try to perform open heart surgery on yourself? Then why would you attempt sports handicapping or sports betting on your own? The fact is the odds of winning consistently are significantly better for a full-time sports handicapper as opposed to someone who does it recreationally—and it only makes sense!

Lastly, and perhaps of the biggest reasons, professional handicappers separate emotions from the game or bet! Emotions are one of the biggest reasons why people lose far more than they win! The have a bad loss and turn angry and then get caught chasing or they have a great win and are feeling awesome and they “let it all ride” on the next game and get pounded!

How do you rate and grade your plays?

At Winning Sports Plays I only issue the BEST PLAYS every day and nothing more! So play each play with the highest level of confidence! I typically mark one play each day as my “Play of the Day” and this means nothing more than there is one more trend or piece of information in play that happens to give us the highest percentage chance of winning on that day!

All of our picks are monitored using a “10-unit” or “10-star” rating system which is a service industry standard. Some handicappers like to issue “10,000-Star Locks” or “5,000,000 star locks”, etc. but that is nothing but hype and I don’t involve myself with silly gimmicks like that! Many handicappers will also discriminate amongst their plays using a “sliding” scale, typically “3-stars” to “10-stars”, and believe they are communicating a confidence level by doing so. I don’t agree with this! Bottom line, as a sports bettor you should only concern yourself with the plays a handicapper is most confident in, everything else is a waste of time! Many handicappers will also issue “Free” plays every day but I DON’T. To me “Free” means “I don’t think it’s going to win” so why waste my time issuing them and putting you at risk of losing your hard earned money?!

What is a “unit” and how much should I bet each game?

Hey guys, put your egos aside because in sports betting the size of your “unit” doesn’t impress anyone! The answer is that depends on your bankroll. For some of my clients one unit might be $1,000 and for others one unit might be $10. What a unit is all depends on what you are working with.

Here at Winning Sports Plays we believe in a flat-unit system which means your bet amount is the same for each play. Flat unit means you risk “x” to win “y” or risk “y” to win “z”, with “y” being your “unit” amount. Let me put this in dollar form for you. If a “unit” is $100 and you want to play a favorite then you will risk $110 to win $100 but if you play an underdog you might risk $100 to win $110—the common factor in both bets is your unit amount, or $100.

Some handicappers may suggest a “percentage of bankroll” system (ie. 3%, 4%, %%, etc.) but I disagree with this method and, as a math guy and former Wall Street guy, I could write a thesis on why this makes absolutely no sense!

The foundation for sports betting success relies heavily on solid money management. And as a general guideline money management includes setting a unit amount at 1-3% of your total bankroll on any single bet.

For example, let’s say your bankroll is $1,000. If you are just starting I suggest you start at 1% of your bankroll, or a $10 unit amount. This means that your average play would be $50 for a 5-unit selection. I suggest using this as a baseline for calculating your own personal situation.

Now, $50 may not seem like a lot to bet on a game. But when you consider that on any given Saturday, the busiest day in sports, you could have 25-30 units worth of picks in play which represents 25-30% of your total bankroll. And again, if you are looking and sports betting as a long-term investment like you should be then you need to understand that success doesn’t happen overnight! The winners in this business are the ones who are disciplined, patient, and consistent. “Go Big or Go Home” or “Let it Ride” are the slogans of true amateurs and those who find themselves chasing losses and ultimately losing homes, cars, jobs, wives and even kids!

Finally, you have to consider that as you win more money and your bankroll grows the value of your plays will also grow. This is called exponential growth. But the only way to achieve this is by adhering to strict money management practices and betting the same amount for each pick.

How can I start winning consistently?

There are many keys to winning consistently and here is a summary of what you need to do if you want to be successful:

Change your approach and attitude! If you choose to bet on sports then treat it as an investment and NOT a recreational hobby! The bottom line is you are risking your hard earned money so get serious about it!

Set realistic expectations! Everyone bets every game expecting to win BUT to actually win every game is unrealistic! If you are going to do this you better understand that you are going to win some and you are going to lose some and you will have some “good luck” go your way and some “bad luck” that will beat you! Bottom line, learn to take the bad with the good!

  • Only bet what you can afford to lose! We all know this but few actually adhere to it!
  • Establish your total bankroll amount and “unit” amount.
  • Win, lose or draw—STAY DISCIPLINED!
  • DO NOT EVER CHASE your losses!
  • Team up with a professional handicapper with proven success over the LONG-TERM!
Which Professional Handicapper should I use?

First, let me tell you who you shouldn’t use:

  • AVOID phone services –they are ALL SCAMS–PERIOD!
  • CAUTION: there are new services popping up every day–save your money and time—none have long term track records and 99% are out of business within 90 days! Also, if you are suddenly receiving emails from these new services it’s because they acquired your email illegally—the source has already been reported to multiple agencies.
  • DO NOT use any service who is not monitored.

Contrary to what you might think all handicappers are not created equal! And to assume they are all alike would be ridiculous! Every handicapper has their own unique style and it’s important that you find someone that you can understand their style and are comfortable with.

Some guys like to play a lot of favorites while some guys like to play a lot of underdogs or even totals. Additionally, some handicappers like to only play one or two games a day while others will have more action. There are a number of different styles and no one style is necessarily better than the next—it really comes down to your personal preference and the handicapper’s expertise.

Long-term performance records should always be a main factor in your decision! And always decipher between “records” and “profit”! Although win-loss records are relevant to some degree they can also be very misleading! For example, a handicapper who plays a lot of big favorite moneylines may boast a 65% winning percentage but the reality is they might actually be LOSING money depending on the size of the favorites they lost! To the contrary, another handicapper may only show a 45% winning percentage but this can misleading too because they may actually be showing HUGE profit because they may play a lot of underdog moneylines—-this is why it’s so important to understand the handicapper’s style of play! And ALWAYS focus on PROFIT, PROFIT, PROFIT because winning percentages can be so misleading!

At Winning Sports Plays we specialize in football, baseball and basketball. I am an underdog specialist who has called some of the biggest upsets during my career! Over the past 20 years we have managed tremendous profit that few can match or beat! I use similar math models in handicapping to those that contributed to my overall success as a Wall Street professional and resulted in my clients making a lot of money! My ability to process and analyze numbers and data—-a true gift—gave me the ability to retire before most people even start their careers!

Winning Sports Plays is proud to celebrate 16 YEARS ON THE WEB! Winning Sports Plays has consistently provided its clients with serious profit while maintaining the highest level of integrity! We are proud to be considered one of the best and most trusted handicappers in the business!

J.R. Stevens
Award Winning Handicapper

© Copyright 2019 Winning Sports Plays, All Rights Reserved.
Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is in violation of all copyright laws.

“FADING THE PUBLIC” IS IT PROFITABLE?

One of the ongoing debates involves betting against the public and whether, or not, it is a profitable strategy over time…

One of the ongoing debates involves betting against the public and whether, or not, it is a profitable strategy over time. Many experts will tell you it is profitable while others tell you it’s not. So which is it? IT DEPENDS!

To blindly bet against the public is probably as foolish as betting all favorites or all underdogs – neither will lead to consistent profits over time. However, the public can’t be ignored and if you know what to look for then betting against the public in certain situations can provide a nice return on investment. Before I get to some of those situations the one thing we need to remember is that the term “public” is nothing more than perception by YOU (the general public) – and the public is CLUELESS!

It makes me laugh when I read various sports forums around the net and see people asking “who is the public on?” and what people write in response to this question is just as funny, if not funnier. Why? Because those people are doing nothing but wasting their time and taking up valuable forum space for constructive dialogue that can actually lead to picking winners! To find out who the public is taking you don’t need fancy software or even sites that claim they can tell you where the “money” is, all you need to do is look in the mirror and ask “who do I like?” It’s really that simple because, again, YOU are the public and the public is CLUELESS – and that’s a fact! Not because you are stupid, but because it is human nature to migrate towards betting favorites and the overs. Why?

Because as humans and fans it is only natural to want winners and scoring! I can’t tell you how many times I have randomly asked the question “who do you like in this game” and the answer is so predictable it’s almost funny – it’s the FAVORITE regardless of who the favorite is. And the response I get to my follow up question (“why?”) is just as predictable – “because there is a reason why they are favored; because they are the better team!” If it was only that easy folks! But there is a reason why casinos can build $500 million properties or why the owners of offshore bookmakers are flying around in private jets! It’s because the ONLY thing the public is consistent at is BEING WRONG!

So then, how can you be successful fading the public?

Understand the lines that are set by odds makers. Lines are calculated using statistical data and situational data like weather and injuries. Then a human element is added or subtracted to achieve the final published line. Remember, odds makers know all about perception and psychology and trust me when I say they will set you up! Ever hear of the term “trap”? This is a term used when something looks too good to be true! If a line looks too good to be true or too “easy” the public is almost certain to take the bait but my advice is run the other way as fast as you can! (“Fade the Public”)

Watch and listen carefully to the media! If the media is hyping a certain team all day, or even a high profile injury, take note! The media is not as stupid as we think! Their only job is to sell ratings! Even if they believe the outcome of the game will be a lop-sided one they will try and persuade you to think the opposite so that you will actually tune in and watch the game. The media has the biggest influence over the public and perception! Do not fall victim to the media’s ratings games! Hype, hype, hype = run, run, run! (“Fade the Public”) Read, Read, Read! We all know knowledge is power and reading might not make you an expert or even a handicapper but it sure as hell can help you avoid the pitfalls. Sports forums are great places to start! Travel around the net and read various forums. Forums, in most cases, are nothing but herds of amateurs. And what you will quickly learn is if an overwhelming majority of forum posters are on one side of a game it is almost certain to lose. Remember, it is human nature to want to be the majority and not the minority – there is a certain level of comfort in knowing you are not alone! But I can tell you that whether you are a sports investor or stock investor it is NEVER good to follow the herd – herds only lead you down the paths of destruction! If the herd is running in one direction run, run, run the other way! (“Fade the Public”)

In summary, there is no fool proof method to winning 100% of the time and fading the public is no exception. However, if you know what signs to look for you can increase your odds of winning dramatically. Always remember, a “good” bet is typically one that makes you feel you a little uncomfortable and makes you think while a “bad” bet is one that feels too good or looks too easy.

J.R. Stevens
Award Winning Handicapper

© Copyright 2019 Winning Sports Plays, All Rights Reserved.
Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is in violation of all copyright laws.

NFL PRESEASON HANDICAPPING TIPS

Too many people ignore preseason, even say it’s a waste of time or IMPOSSIBLE to win– this is NOT TRUE…

Too many people ignore preseason, even say it’s a waste of time or IMPOSSIBLE to win– this is NOT TRUE! In fact, preseason presents us with easy opportunities to win if you know how to handicap—and I have proven this for over 18 years, winning more than 65% of all preseason picks!

During the NFL preseason unique conditions are in place, therefore, successful sports handicapping requires different strategies than those used during any other time of the NFL season. Preseason football handicapping involves an understanding of so many different things like coaching, QB rotations, team motivation and game plan.

COACHING

Some coaches don’t care if they lose a preseason game, and don’t hide this fact, while other coaches hate to lose any games at all, even preseason games! This presents us with an excellent chance to capitalize on teams with a coach who has a stated goal of winning the game. Some coaches want to set a tone early and are looking to establish a winning attitude. For example, new coaches taking on their first head-coaching job are eager to get that first win under their belt to prove to themselves, team owners and fans they can win in this league! However, be careful to not confuse “new” with just making a “change” like some veteran coaches who are simply moving from one team to another. In this case, winning might not be a priority because they have already established themselves in the league and, instead, may focus on personnel and game planning. Another example is new head coaches who are playing against their former teams. The situation is especially strong if the coach was fired or left with a bitter taste in his mouth. Coaches in this role make winning a priority because they want immediate revenge! Another strong example involves coaches coming off bad seasons and whose jobs may already be at-risk! These coaches will be more motivate to win than coaches with job security!

Coaching is a huge factor in handicapping preseason and taking the time to understand the coach, his history and game planning can lead to many opportunities to cash in big!

MOTIVATION

Again, the primary objective of an NFL team in an exhibition game is not necessarily to win, but to get ready to win during the regular season, so when one team is motivated to win a practice game, and that desire is not going to be matched by its opponent, they will have a big edge. Certain situations arise that will present us with unique opportunities. For example, teams looking for revenge for an embarrassing loss the previous season are typically more motivated to win the rematch on preseason. Another example is a non-playoff team playing the defending Super Bowl champion; these teams will be motivated to prove they can play up to that level. A final example involves teams dealing with major distractions like high profile contract disputes or off filed problems. Teams at this level typically handle adversity very well during the regular season but during preseason are less likely to waste emotions on a meaningless game.

Looking for motivation mismatches in how two teams are approaching a preseason contest is instrumental in finding tremendous value.

QB ROTATIONS

The QB rotation is one of the most important factors in handicapping preseason and if you know how to truly dissect the rotation it can lead you to many big opportunities to cash in big. For example, teams with rookie QBs who will see significant playing time are more likely to struggle than teams with experienced QBs, especially if the rookies will take most of their snaps during the second half. Another example involves teams where QB battles exist for the starting job. In cases where a battle exists the first string offense usually gets extended playing time in order to play with both QBs. This can create a huge mismatch because often times we find the 1st string offense playing against the opponent’s 2nd, or even 3rd string, defense.

Understanding the QB rotation can help you find big mismatches that can lead to huge profit.

GAME PLAN

NFL preseason handicapping is completely different than analyzing how teams might play during the regular season and even the playoffs. For example, a team that has a successful game plan already in place will play to their strength during the regular season in order to give themselves the best chance of winning the game. However, in the preseason this team may be more apt to try different things knowing they have confidence in their game plan already. For example, teams with more roster spots open early in preseason present us with unique opportunities. These teams typically had poor records the previous season, often are the preseason underdogs, but tend to attract the better free agents and play the better backups, giving us opportunity to capitalize. Another example is to identify teams that will not play key starters playing opponents who are playing key players. Some coaches don’t see a need to risk injury to their key players because they already know what their starters are capable of. This gives us a big opportunity to cash in!

Knowing the game plan is instrumental to the overall success of picking winners during preseason.

SUMMARY

Again, preseason football handicapping involves an understanding of many different things like coaching, QB rotations, team motivation and game plan. It is the collective understanding of these factors and knowing how to apply them that is the difference in winning in losing. Here is an example of how the art of applying these categories can lead to big and easy profit:

Here is a Pick/write up from the past to show you what you get as a VIP Member:

NFLx
August 12, 2012
Indianapolis vs. St. Louis
(PICK: INDIANAPOLIS -1)
The Rams enter this one with an new experienced coach in Jeff Fisher and tremendous talent and depth on both sides of the ball. The Rams went 4-0 in preseason last year but their fortunes quickly reversed when the team was plagued by injuries! A disappointing year combined with new coaches and players has this team feeling very optimistic about the new year! Meanwhile, we all know what happened to the Colts last season, the loss of Manning and a slew of other injuries never gave the Colts a chance to even compete. However, the team is healthy again and are hungry to quickly right this ship and prove last season, one of the worst in franchise history, was a fluke and unavoidable given the hand they were dealt. With the departure of Manning many fans and critics are already writing them off as being a contender this season—NOT SO FAST! QB Luck is more than capable of leading this team into contention! Luck is already comfortable with NFL-style offenses considering he played under Coach Harbaugh in college and excelled for 3 season under an NFL-style system! I expect the Colts to approach this game with tremendous focus looking for a win that will get rid of the sour grapes of last season. The Rams are stacked as I already mentioned but this one is about motivation! Let’s take the Colts with tremendous confidence knowing that certain motivated preseason teams coming off a horrible season have cashed in at an astonishing 97% in week 1, making this the strongest pick of week 1!

FINAL: Indianapolis 38 St. Louis 3
(biggest margin of victory in week 1 and the Colts finished the season 11-5)

Are you ready to win big again this season?
  • +19,600 last season - Ranked #1
  • Ranked #1 in 4 of L5 Years!
  • +164,110 Profit L5 Years – Ranked #1!
  • Countless #1 Rankings!

Everyone knows I’m the best FOOTBALL Handicapper in the business, this is fact, and I’m going to prove it again this season.

J.R. Stevens
Award Winning Handicapper

© Copyright 2019 Winning Sports Plays, All Rights Reserved.
Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is in violation of all copyright laws.

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